OSBC: Microsoft is Beginning to Crumble ...sort of...

I attended the first day of the OSBC (Open Source Business Conference) today in SF. I live in the South Bay, so I have a nice 90 min. CalTrain ride to ponder the day's events. Here is a summary of my reaction to the keynote event this afternoon... Brad Smith, GC from Microsoft (among other corporate titles) presented the Microsoft side of the Open Source movement. He had 30 min. to say his (clearly pre-scripted) Microsoft view, with a 30 min. panel discussion including open source reps. from SteelEye, Ubuntu, Updegrove, and RedMonk, followed by an additional 30 min. of Q&A from the audience. Here are my (minor) observations:

1. Give Brad some major props for actually showing up! The running joke was that he showed up knowing that he would have 30 min. to speak with 60 min. of grilling from an expert panel and a semi-expert audience. This sounds worse than being deposed by Johhny Cochrane in the OJ trial!

2. If you believe in the open source movement at all, you have to believe Microsoft is going to crumble someday unless they change their position significantly.

3. Even if Microsoft is on a crash trajectory, they will still make at least $200 billion over the next 5 years before it becomes an issue their investors, board and execs care about. Maybe this gives them time to achieve a soft landing into the OS community, at least if they don't completely alienate themselves in the meantime.

4. Linux is clearly the wave of the future....

5. Can Linux distributions surpass 30% market share and achieve $10 billion in revenue in the next 5 years? (if not, who or what will break the Microsoft monopoly?!?)

6. Can Linux and open source projects in general survive the obtuse patent licensing scheme proposed by Microsoft?

In summary, Microsoft has taken the approach of an abusive spouse... yeah I smack you around a little bit, but you should be happy I put food on the table... by the way, I love you!

That crew in Redmond just doesn't get it yet. Or maybe they do, and they are going for the soft-landing approach. Maybe every one of us in the open source community should encourage them to move faster by sending Steve Ballmer and Brad Smith a soda in protest! (http://www.cnet.com/8301-13505_1-9868659-16.html?%255E$) Flood their offices!