Prize Fighing in the Clouds

Ding! Ding! Welcome to the main event! In one corner, we have cloud computing heavyweights Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Salesforce ... In the other corner, we collection of cloud computing heavyweight contender including IBM, Sun AT&T, Cisco, EMC and VMware. Let's get ready to rumble!

The rapid emergence of clouds as the next big thing in computing, and the positions being staked out by the participants look more like a prize fight than the garden variety competition we are used to seeing in technology development. Battle lines have been drawn based on the recent release of the Open Cloud Manifesto - a position paper created by a collection of technology companies (IBM and the other contenders above) to advocate for open standards that will lead to open clouds.

Critics of the Manifesto, Microsoft in particular, claim that it was created without soliciting industry-wide input in an open manner, and openness demands the inclusion of all interested parties. In spite of the controversy over the Manifesto, all technology providers would argue that standardization is good for the development of an industry around clouds. Some of the opposing parties have already agreed to "bury the hatchet" in favor of interoperability. It is inevitable that standardization will occur, and the only question is how long it will take, and whether it will occur through a voluntary Manifesto or similar community agreement, through alliances between technology companies , or through a de facto standard resulting from a dominant industry entity. In any case, we are only in the first round of a 15 round marathon.

All the focus on the Manifesto and standardization misses an important broader point. The discussion calls into question how competitive and effective open source can be in an emerging industry. It's clear that open source can create massive disruption in existing proprietary industries, and that closed business models are best at protecting legacy revenue streams from closed source businesses. As Matt Asay recent noted, companies have every incentive to maximize the lock-in of their customers and will be wary of committing to an open standard at the expense of lock-in (the Prisoner's Dilemma). At the same time, it's not clear that being open even solves the problems of vendor lock-in.

Regardless of whether we believe that open source and standardization are the best models for disruption or prevention of lock-in, the cloud industry should embrace open source to promote quality. The fact is that open source produces quality software, and it is quality that will provide the knock-out punch in this cloud battle. As a result, my recommendation is for companies in the cloud space to start with an open platform if they are newcomers, and existing players should move to a more open platform in these early days of the industry. After all, even big punchers like Amazon only address a portion of the spectrum of technologies needed to fully realize the potential of the cloud. This way we can speed the move to standardization and avoid the problems of proprietary lock-in that we have see all to often over the life of the computer industry.

Keep it a clean fight, no hitting below the belt, and may the best fighter(s) win.